Like the trial of Donald Trump in New York City almost closing arguments, most Americans believe he is guilty of a crime in this case. But they are less sure what the jury will do after deliberations next week.
Fifty-six percent – a majority – say Trump is definitely or probably guilty of a crime in this case, in which he is accused of falsifying company documents to hide a 'hush money' payment and influence the 2016 elections.
Opinions are highly partisan: Nearly all Democrats believe Trump is guilty and about eight in 10 Republicans say the opposite. Republicans are less certain of their positions. While three in four Democrats say he is “definitely” guilty, only half of Republicans say he is “definitely” not guilty.
The public is more divided on what they think the jury will decide, with about half expecting the jurors to find Trump guilty and the other half saying the opposite. And the positions of both sides are far from certain. For example, many more jurors say they will “probably” convict Trump than say they will “definitely” convict him.
When people believe Trump is guilty, they tend to believe the jury will convict him. And vice versa for those who believe he is not guilty of a crime. But about a third of each group expects the jury to decide the opposite of what they believe.
Overall, about three-quarters of Americans say they have heard or read at least something about the trial. And those who say they've heard “a lot” about it are the most polarized in their views – they are likely to identify as strong supporters and express more confidence in Trump's guilt or innocence, reducing the impact of a verdict on the views of the public may be watered down. .
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,402 adult U.S. residents interviewed between May 14 and 21, 2024. Data includes an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin . The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education, based on the US Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past voting history. The margin of error is ±4.4 points.
Kabir Khanna
