Trump pollsters claim the verdict is already baked in the cake

Source: MEGA

A leaked memo from Donald Trump's 2024 campaign earlier this week showed his team was not concerned about the consequences a guilty verdict would have.

May 31, 2024, published at 10:15 am ET

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Leaked memo Trump pollsters judge baked cake eases GOP tensions
Source: Radar

The confidential memo, dated Wednesday, May 29, cited polling data suggesting that a guilty Trump verdict was already “baked into the cake” for most voters.

The confidential memo, dated Wednesday, May 29, cited polling data suggesting that a guilty Trump verdict was already “baked into the cake” for most voters as they prepare to vote in the general election on November 5.

The memo also indicated that a guilty verdict would “not significantly change” Trump's current lead over the president. Joe Biden and that an acquittal 'would not increase his advantage'.

“As President Trump's trial in New York enters its final stages, it is not surprising that the media is treating the jury's decision as if it will make or break President Trump's electoral ambitions,” said the memo, which was obtained by RadarOnline.com on Friday morning, read.

“However, our polling data shows otherwise,” the memo continued. “The impact of the New York trial, what little there has been, is already baked into the cake and voters have generally already formed their opinions about the trial and President Trump's actions.”

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Leaked memo Trump pollsters judge baked cake eases GOP tensions
Source: Radar

The memo also indicated that a guilty verdict would “not significantly change” Trump's current lead over President Joe Biden.

“Based on weeks of data, we found that a conviction would not significantly change the advantage President Trump currently enjoys over Biden in our target states, nor would an acquittal increase his lead.”

The memo cited polling data from seven major battlegrounds including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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According to Trump campaign data, the ex-president's lead “fell by two net points among those asking how they would vote if he were convicted” and his lead “fell by two net points among those asking how they would vote if he was convicted. .”

The Trump campaign called such changes “statistically insignificant” for the ex-president's chances of retaking the White House later this year.

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Leaked memo Trump pollsters judge baked cake eases GOP tensions
Source: MEGA

“Based on weeks of data, we found that a conviction would not significantly change the advantage President Trump currently enjoys over Biden in our target states, nor would an acquittal increase his lead.”

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“When we asked voters how they would vote if convicted or acquitted, the changes were insignificant,” Wednesday's memo said.

“President Trump's lead fell by two net points among those who asked how they would vote if he were convicted,” the report continued. “His lead increased by one net point among those who asked how they would vote if he were not convicted.”

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“Both shifts are statistically insignificant, meaning there is no real change in the race by mathematical standards.”

Meanwhile, Wednesday's memo was also issued in an apparent attempt to ease the situation increasing tensions within the Republican Party about Trump's legal issues — especially after the ex-president was found guilty and sentenced of 34 criminal charges on Thursday.

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Leaked memo Trump pollsters judge baked cake eases GOP tensions
Source: MEGA

“Both shifts are statistically insignificant, meaning there is no real change in the race by mathematical standards.”

“Voters in our key target states have already made up their minds about this process,” Trump's campaign team emphasized. “Most voters, especially our supporters, believe the case is politically motivated and that a conviction would be the result of a biased show trial.”

“Biden voters will believe that President Trump is guilty no matter what,” the memo concluded. “And those in the middle are largely unconcerned and their vote will not depend on the results of the trial.”

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While several Republican politicians agreed with the argument presented in the Trump campaign memo, other Republican lawmakers were not so quick to jump on board.

An aide to a Republican senator said they were “skeptical” that Trump's conviction would help the ex-president's campaign — especially as the campaign works to convince swing voters to vote for Trump instead from Biden.

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Leaked memo Trump pollsters judge baked cake eases GOP tensions
Source: Radar

Some GOP insiders were “skeptical” about the impact a Trump guilty verdict would have on the ex-president's campaign.

“I'm skeptical of the 'a crime helps Trump' narrative,” the Republican Party insider said. “But obviously it will help the base, just like the offense did. It is unclear what impact this will have on voters.”

“People just think it's all bulls,” another senior aide to a Republican congressman explained. “But people at the strategic level will listen to the polls.”

“To expand, I think Trump has a million warts,” that source continued. “They are ingrained. January 6 was 100 times this. No one needs another character flaw to oppose him. But when it comes to who will make you better off, this doesn't change any of that.”

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