According to Stifel, there is a 40% chance that Biden will withdraw from the presidential race

40% chance President Biden will drop out of race, Stifel estimates

According to Stifel, there is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not run for re-election.

Brian Gardner, the firm's chief policy strategist in Washington, has released a research report calling it a “make or break week” for the president's campaign as Congress returns from recess on July 4.

“There's a 60 percent chance, more likely than not, that he stays,” Gardner told CNBC's “Fast Money” on Monday. “Biden loves proving the smart kids in the Democratic Party wrong. So the more he hears from the elites that he has to get out, the more he's going to dig in his heels.”

Gardner, who advises analysts on the potential implications of White House policies for their areas of work, believes Democrats pushing Biden to withdraw face a significant hurdle.

“They have no leverage. They can try to convince Mr. Biden to withdraw from the race, but they can't force him,” Gardner told clients Monday. “It's a fantasy to think that at least half of Mr. Biden's most dedicated supporters will turn against him and not vote to nominate him.”

While concerns about the president’s age persisted during his last bid for the Oval Office, a poor debate performance in June has changed the tone of the conversation. Polling data and financial markets are beginning to reflect a shift in sentiment that favors former President Donald Trump.

If Biden remains in the race, Gardner expects the Democratic Party can still expect a favorable outcome.

“There is a level of voters who will never vote for Donald Trump no matter what,” Gardner said.

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